exact conformal over the weekday group (2026-08-24, 2026-08-25, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-27); claimed coverage IS the certified coverage 3/5


forced dumb baseline: last observed day (2026-08-27) as a point interval, claiming 1/2


the hedger: min..max of all 5 observed days, claiming 9/10 — width is paid in Winkler


frontier-model campaign v1: one-shot slate, all models queried before any commit was published; context pack sha256 661d655d7e4931a777443a956e9586f2b5d0a66c798c585408a41ab89ef96717; coverage claim chosen by the model


Winkler interval score at alpha 2/5, exact rationals


Winkler interval score at alpha 1/2, exact rationals


Winkler interval score at alpha 1/10, exact rationals


Winkler interval score at alpha 1/5, exact rationals


Winkler interval score at alpha 1/6, exact rationals


exact conformal over the weekday group (2026-08-24, 2026-08-25, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-27, 2026-08-28); claimed coverage IS the certified coverage 4/6


forced dumb baseline: last observed day (2026-08-28) as a point interval, claiming 1/2


the hedger: min..max of all 6 observed days, claiming 9/10 — width is paid in Winkler


frontier-model campaign v1: one-shot slate, all models queried before any commit was published; context pack sha256 81068a6d8bb251cfab0ead8ab04d806b206f1c90cc1931534b3a625e99b3ebe4; coverage claim chosen by the model


forced dumb baseline: last observed day (2026-08-29) as a point interval, claiming 1/2


the hedger: min..max of all 7 observed days, claiming 9/10 — width is paid in Winkler