cert-machine · the registry · every event re-decided at this build

Sixteen thousand breaking waves, decided against the laboratory.

What a breaking wave looks like — how long the whitecap is, how much area it covers, how steep its face, how fast it travels — has been measured mostly in tanks. Guimarães, Stringari, Leckler and Ardhuin published the geometry of 16,369 breaking waves filmed in stereo on the Black Sea over eleven days in 2013 and wrote two sentences about them: that real breakers are not self-similar, and that a breaker's speed does not predict its geometry. No table came with the record. This page reads their per-event table as the exact numbers it holds and puts a decided number under each sentence.

tl;dr
  • The finding. Against the laboratory: 5,648 of 16,369 events (34.5%) have the inclination Duncan measured in a tank, 10–14.7°; 16,194 (98.9%) have an aspect ratio above Duncan's 0.11, the median being 4.857 times it, and only 263 fall within a quarter of it. Not self-similar, in numbers: a geometry that scaled with itself would hold cb²/(g·Lb), Ab/Lb² and Ab/L²_D81 constant; across the middle half of the events they vary by factors of 2.062, 1.874 and 1.875, and across the central ninety per cent by 5.771, 4.263 and 5.435. Speed does not predict geometry, in numbers: the rank correlation of breaking speed with length, area, height, duration, Duncan length and inclination is at most 0.410 (height Dz), while area against length is 0.902 — geometry predicts geometry; speed predicts little. And the breakers are slow: the median runs at 0.284 of the peak phase speed of its sea, and 127 of 16,369 exceed half of it.
  • The mechanism. The record's table is a pandas pickle; it was written out once as a CSV in which every number is the shortest decimal that round-trips to the double the pickle holds, verified column by column, and pinned. Every literal is read as the rational its digits denote. A comparison with a laboratory constant is an exact sign; a quantile is the k-th smallest value, k = ⌈p·n⌉ — a number that occurs in the table, never an average — and a spread factor is a ratio of two of them; a rank correlation is Pearson's r on average ranks, which are half-integers, so doubled they are integers and ρ² is an exact rational (ρ itself is enclosed to twelve decimals by integer square roots). The one transcendental, π in the peak phase speed g/(2π·fp), enters as a certified enclosure and the affected quantiles are enclosures. The references are the ones the authors' own scripts draw: the g they use, their breaking length Lb = Pb/2, Duncan's 10–14.7° band and 0.11 as their histogram script marks them.
  • Check it. node instruments/breaking/battery.js — 42 checks, 5 red controls that must fire (a NaN, a comma decimal, a reversed line's sign, a root's lower end, one literal moved by 10⁻¹⁷ moving an exact r²), then the whole table re-decided live against the ledger. node tools/run-breaking-ledger.js re-hashes the nine pinned files and rebuilds every number in about two seconds.
breaking events decided
16,369
20 stereo-video records, winds 6–18 m/s, Hs 0.20–0.75 m
in Duncan's inclination band
34.5%
5,648 events between 10° and 14.7°; 4,280 flatter, 6,441 steeper, none on an edge
median aspect ratio over Duncan's
4.857×
16,194 of 16,369 above 0.11; 263 within ±25 %, 550 within ±50 %
self-similarity spread, middle half
2.062× · 1.874× · 1.875×
q75/q25 of cb²/(g·Lb), Ab/Lb², Ab/L²_D81 — exact ratios of two table values
speed ~ geometry, at most
ρ = 0.41
against ρ = 0.90 for area ~ length; every ρ² an exact rational
breaker speed / peak phase speed
0.28
the median; the central 90 % run between 0.19 and 0.41 of cp, enclosed
§1 · the laboratory

Duncan's tank, against the Black Sea

10° 14.7° 20° 30° 40° inclination θ of the aerated region, degrees (1° bins; 0 events beyond 45°) Duncan (1981): 10° 14.7°
The inclination of the aerated region at the frame of its greatest extent, one-degree bins, membership decided exactly from the literal in the table. Duncan's band is the one the authors' histogram script draws; the band holds 34.5% of the events, the flatter side 26.1%, the steeper side 39.3%.
0 0.11 0.5 1 1.5 2 aspect ratio Ab / L²_D81 (bins of 0.05; 1 event beyond 2) Duncan (1981): 0.11 median 0.534
The aspect ratio of the aerated region — its plan-view area over the square of its slanted length — in bins of 0.05. Duncan's 0.11 is marked where the script marks it. The hump sits well to the right: 16,194 events are above the laboratory value and the median is 4.857 times it.

Duncan (1981) towed a hydrofoil through a tank and measured the breaking region it made: a wedge inclined at 10–14.7° whose cross-sectional area was 0.11 of the square of its length. The authors' scripts draw both numbers over their histograms, and this page decides both event by event with no tolerance: an inclination is INSIDE, ON or OUTSIDE the band by an exact comparison of the literal with 10 and 14.7; an aspect ratio is above or below 0.11 by an exact sign. One caveat belongs to the comparison itself and is the authors' as much as ours: Duncan's 0.11 relates a vertical cross-section to a length, whereas the area measured from above a real sea is the whitecap's plan view. The script draws the line on that histogram; the page decides it as drawn, and says so.

§2 · self-similarity

Three ratios a self-similar breaker would hold constant

ratioq05q25medianq75q95q75 / q25q95 / q05
cb² / (g·Lb)0.4520.7801.1331.6072.6062.062×5.771×
Ab / Lb²0.1560.2450.3380.4590.6641.874×4.263×
Ab / L²_D810.1910.3810.5340.7141.0401.875×5.435×

If breaking waves were geometrically similar to one another, a length made from the speed (cb²/g) would be a fixed multiple of the measured length, and the area a fixed multiple of the length squared: each ratio would be a constant up to measurement noise. Here each quantile is an order statistic of the exact ratios — the k-th smallest value, so a number that some event actually has — and the spread factors are exact ratios of two of them. The middle half of the events spans a factor of two in every ratio; the central ninety per cent, a factor of four to six. The authors' script tests the same thing by marking the tail beyond the mean plus two standard deviations, a float procedure on a distribution with no reason to be normal; the spread factors above are the same finding in a form that does not depend on a distribution.

§3 · speed and geometry

What the speed of a breaker tells you about its shape

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 speed cb ~ length Lb 0.360 speed cb ~ area Ab 0.375 speed cb ~ height Dz 0.410 speed cb ~ duration Δt 0.150 speed cb ~ Duncan L 0.361 speed cb ~ angle θ 0.097 area Ab ~ length Lb 0.902 height Dz ~ length Lb 0.649 length Lb ~ duration Δt 0.397 Spearman rank correlation ρ, an exact rational read to three decimals breaking speed against a geometric property one geometric property against another
Spearman rank correlations, each an exact rational read to three decimals (hover for ρ² and for Pearson's r on the raw values). cb is the mean breaking speed, Lb the breaking length (half the perimeter), Ab the whitecap area, Dz its vertical extent, Δt its duration, L the Duncan length and θ the inclination. Six pair breaking speed with a geometric property; three pair geometric properties with each other, as the control.

"No predictable relationship" is a sentence about correlation, and a rank correlation is a rational number: average ranks, doubled, are integers, and Pearson's formula on integers is a ratio of two integers. The speed of a breaker ranks with its length at ρ = 0.360, with its area at 0.375, with its vertical extent at 0.410, with its duration at 0.150 and with its inclination at 0.097. Length ranks with area at 0.902. The authors' scripts fit Lb = a·cb and Lb = a·cb²/g through the cloud by RANSAC and least squares; those are float procedures whose coefficients depend on the fitter's choices, and they are not reproduced here — the rank correlation is what the cloud itself says, and it says a breaker's speed explains at most ρ² = 0.168 of the rank variation in any property measured.

§4 · the records

Twenty records, eleven days

recordeventswind, m/sHs, mfp, Hz
2013-09-22 12:00 · 12Hz1276.060.5500.2119
2013-09-22 13:00 · 10Hz1756.070.7510.2437
2013-09-23 10:40 · 12Hz1,0749.590.5500.2459
2013-09-23 13:18 · 12Hz3689.280.5500.2330
2013-09-23 13:55 · 12Hz4389.950.5850.2214
2013-09-24 09:45 · 10Hz1,05511.620.5560.1457
2013-09-25 10:00 · 12Hz1,88214.870.5030.2215
2013-09-25 11:10 · 12Hz1,55716.580.4920.2091
2013-09-25 12:15 · 12Hz3,32015.250.4800.1767
2013-09-26 12:32 · 15Hz1297.390.3950.1766
2013-09-27 07:35 · 12Hz46114.000.5150.1313
2013-09-30 08:00 · 12Hz408.850.3160.2581
2013-09-30 10:20 · 12Hz3868.710.3280.2352
2013-09-30 13:22 · 12Hz1698.180.3280.2348
2013-10-01 06:00 · 12Hz1,16115.700.2570.1436
2013-10-01 08:05 · 12Hz1,14617.600.1990.1524
2013-10-01 08:50 · 12Hz1,18817.990.2570.1410
2013-10-01 11:45 · 12Hz1,22516.620.2810.1518
2013-10-02 05:45 · 12Hz1957.580.3280.1632
2013-10-02 06:30 · 12Hz2739.500.3280.1635

Each record is one stereo-video run from the Katsiveli platform, its wind, significant wave height and peak frequency constant within it (verified: no record carries two values). 3,320 of the events come from the busiest run and 40 from the quietest; the counts above are exact and the description's "over 16000" is 16,369.

what this page does NOT claim

Nothing about the ocean is decided here — only about the table: whether each of its numbers falls inside a stated band, how spread its ratios are, how its columns rank together. The table itself is the authors' measurement, with whatever error the stereo reconstruction and the whitecap detection carry; the record describes neither, and the companion instrument on this site (/instruments/stereo-reach) shows what a rig's geometry alone can do to a length. Duncan's band and ratio are taken as the authors' scripts state them; the 1981 paper is not held here, and the plan-view caveat in §1 is real. The two sentences the page quantifies are the record's own; there is no published article with a table to read them against, and the statistical tests the scripts run (a lognormal fit, a Kolmogorov–Smirnov p, a tail beyond two standard deviations) are not reproduced, because they are float procedures about a distribution and this page decides only what exact arithmetic can. The data are CC-BY-4.0; the seven files used were extracted from the 8.9 GB archive by byte range against its published digest, and the extraction is recorded.